Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab00…b2b1 politics 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$427 (-0%) realized −$427 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%22W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,290per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$90
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$78
other 36% −$15
sports 21% −$318
world 2% −$2
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$33
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -5.4% -14.4% 8% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 93 -15.0% -23.1% 9% 5% -10.4%
all 132 -1.9% -11.3% 17% 13% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 13% -9.8%
10% -19.8% 13% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 12% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,507) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$17 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,172
Realized−$427
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses22 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,290
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $811 $810 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $361 $361 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,898 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,724 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $660 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,069 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,724 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,786 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,958 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $358 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $465 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,792 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $3,525 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,935 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $506 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,427 −$4 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $45 +$49 +109%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,091 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,222 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $4,268 −$5 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,605 −$3 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $1,278 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,286 −$1 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $1,288 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,278 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $6,702 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,961 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $4,458 −$7 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $5,274 −$5 -0%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $520 −$400 -77%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $811 43m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $726 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $727 4h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $548 5h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $548 6h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $659 46h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $660 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $822 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $823 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $824 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $825 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $829 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $830 4d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $829 4d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $830 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $361 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,145 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,146 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,082 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,083 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,049 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,060 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,061 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,190 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,192 10d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,192 10d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,194 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,146 11d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,147 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,171.84 · official $1,171.84 (match) · 483 history records