Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaf9…5211 weather 1305 markets active 6d ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$355 (+4%) realized +$355 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%721W / 771L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day49.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$535
7 days−$546
14 days−$549
30 days−$579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$430
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 -89.0% -90.0% 3% 3% -96.4%
≤30d 252 -72.4% -75.0% 12% 12% -72.1%
≤90d 1492 -28.0% -34.8% 48% 43% -19.9%
all 1492 -28.0% -34.8% 48% 43% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.8% 43% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 11% -27.6%
15% -46.7% 7% -34.6%
20% -52.0% 5% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$355
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses721 / 771
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1492 / 1305
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day49.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1492 Trades
no open positions (469 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 76°F or higher on February 10 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 11? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +310%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 28? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 26? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on February Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 7? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on Apri Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on March 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 9? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 2 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on March 29? Jun 17 $5 −$6 -126%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 22 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 76°F or higher on February 8 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 2? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 26? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 12? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 13? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 1? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 12? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 21? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 20? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on January 31? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on March 21? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on March 28? Jun 17 $2 −$3 -140%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 62-63°F on January 28 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 67°F or below on March Jun 17 $2 −$2 -117%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 5? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 19? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29? Jun 17 $5 −$6 -124%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 2? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 3? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 27? Jun 17 $6 −$7 -113%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Marc Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or higher on Mar Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 31 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 19 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on January 28 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 7? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on Marc Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 24? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 9? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.14 · official $9.14 (match) · 3500 history records