Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaaf8…93e3
world · 76 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses21 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage270d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 2 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 64¢ 64¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 39¢ 58¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $55 −$2 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $82 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $26 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $29 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $16 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $34 −$8 -23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $65 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $62 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $33 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $65 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $32 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $64 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $97 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $30 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Mar 29 $65 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% −$8
politics 25% $0
other 15% $0
sports 12% $0
crypto 6% −$1
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $26 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $13 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $13 13h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 14h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $23 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $3 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $29 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $29 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 27 -0.9% -10.4% 37% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 61 -0.9% -10.4% 28% 0% -9.9%
all 74 -0.8% -10.2% 28% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.88 · official $25.40 (match) · 276 history records