Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AA 0xaaf7…31fb other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$102 (+15%) realized +$199 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +96% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip
Net edge+71%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$18
sports 5% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+77.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +96.4% +77.7% 27% 27% +5.3%
≤30d 11 +96.4% +77.7% 27% 27% +5.3%
≤90d 11 +96.4% +77.7% 27% 27% +5.3%
all 11 +96.4% +77.7% 27% 27% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +77.7% 27% +5.3%
10% +60.7% 27% -4.8%
15% +45.2% 27% -14.0%
20% +31.0% 18% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +96% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$47 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $77 −$75 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $75 −$4 -6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $25 +$367 +1467%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $47 +$88 +188%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $32 +$15 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 −$18 -36%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $69 −$67 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $106 −$104 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $27 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $70 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $392 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $134 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $75 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $47 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 18¢ $31 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $49 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $29 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $69 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $53 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $2.01 · 23 history records