Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaf7…2e27 other 386 markets active 3h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (181 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7,077 (+454%) realized +$6,874 · open +$203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%77W / 88L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day181.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,086now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$319
world 16% −$31
tech 16% −$44
politics 15% +$47
sports 8% −$6
finance 2% −$6
culture 1% −$7
economics 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (181 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +25.0% +13.1% 46% 39% +7.4%
≤30d 165 +22.0% +10.4% 47% 37% -1.5%
≤90d 165 +22.0% +10.4% 47% 37% -1.5%
all 165 +22.0% +10.4% 47% 37% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover181.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.4% 37% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -0.2% 27% -10.9%
15% -9.8% 21% -19.5%
20% -18.7% 16% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1,086
Realized+$6,874
Unrealized+$203
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses77 / 88
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions500
Markets (closed)165 / 386
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day181.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Maxx Crosby play for Pittsburgh Steelers next? Yes 0¢ 45¢ $2 $369 +$368 (+23764%)
Will John Mills be the Republican nominee for AL-01? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $3 $26 +$24 (+899%)
Will Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $26 +$17 (+177%)
Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $20 +$18 (+696%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Seattle Seahawks next? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $0 $14 +$13 (+3325%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $13 +$12 (+841%)
Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $13 +$9 (+219%)
Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+464%)
Will Jalen Carter be traded? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $7 $10 +$4 (+55%)
Will Donald Trump announce Brandon Williams as the next United States Labor Secretary Yes 0¢ 2¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+1150%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $130B by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $8 +$4 (+122%)
Will Winsome Earle-Sears be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+614%)
Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season? Yes 18¢ 58¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+222%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+40%)
Will Hope Scheppelman be the Republican nominee for CO-03? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+71%)
Will Petr Yan fight Dominick Cruz next? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+247%)
Will Perplexity have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+68%)
Will Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+175%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $5 +$3 (+100%)
Megaquake by June 30? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+141%)
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+65%)
Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? No 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GTA VI released before November 2026? Jun 29 $14 +$6 +38%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 29 $7 +$1 +19%
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? Jun 29 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 29 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on Decembe Jun 28 $1 $0 +21%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Jun 28 $0 $0 +157%
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 28 $4 +$2 +51%
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 28 $1 +$3 +512%
Will Chase Reid be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 28 $6 +$1 +17%
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 25, 2026? Jun 28 $6 −$4 -65%
Will Tracie Burke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026? Jun 28 $2 +$8 +403%
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 28 $14 +$31 +226%
Will Jeff Hurd be the Republican nominee for CO-03? Jun 27 $3 +$1 +33%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Jun 27 $2 $0 +9%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? Jun 27 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +24%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $6 $0 -4%
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK Jun 26 $4 +$1 +24%
Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +34%
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Jun 26 $8 +$2 +25%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 +221%
Will Utah Jazz win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $0 $0 +8%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of th Jun 25 $2 $0 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $13 +$3 +21%
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31 Jun 25 $5 −$4 -82%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Jun 25 $12 $0 +4%
Will David Hughes win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary el Jun 25 $0 $0 +197%
Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chat Jun 25 $0 +$2 +874%
Will Dricus Du Plessis be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31 Jun 25 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Theo Gillespie be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Antonio Delgado win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Pr Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kweisi Mfume be the Democratic nominee for MD-07? Jun 25 $6 −$4 -72%
Will Kiambo White be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Taylor Darling be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 134.5 billion views by July 31? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 136 billion views by July 31? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary ele Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Amanda Septimo be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Yaxel Lendeborg be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 135 billion views by July 31? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Dalourny Nemorin be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GTA VI released before November 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Megaquake by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Megaquake by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Alexandra Van Cleef be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership el BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will MrBeast hit 520 million subscribers by July 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $42-$49 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will Conrad Ukropina win The Bachelorette Season 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 14h
Will Ronn Perez win The Bachelorette Season 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 14h
Will Aaron Kahng win The Bachelorette Season 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Alexandre Pantoja next? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31? SELL No 20¢ $2 15h
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on Decembe SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Will MrBeast announce a Presidential run before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,085.68 · official $1,081.82 (match) · 3500 history records