Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaf7…0771 politics 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$950 (-1%) realized −$951 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%28W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,028per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$9
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$60
other 31% −$85
sports 19% −$813
culture 2% −$4
economics 2% $0
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 54 -1.9% -11.3% 7% 0% -11.6%
all 122 +2.2% -7.5% 23% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 11% -10.2%
10% -16.4% 11% -18.8%
15% -24.4% 10% -26.7%
20% -31.8% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,422) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$21 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized−$951
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses28 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,028
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $615 $616 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 28 $274 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $231 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $3,163 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $258 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $245 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $276 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $382 +$2 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,052 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,759 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,665 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,783 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $611 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,936 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $1,893 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $831 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 20 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $1,187 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,158 −$3 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $3,633 −$4 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,048 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 02 $218 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $564 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $4,007 −$4 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $1,944 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,189 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,848 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,849 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $882 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $273 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $274 3h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $231 19h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $231 21h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $259 27h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $260 28h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $282 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $282 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $258 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $258 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $244 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $245 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $275 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $276 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $333 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $334 10d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $615 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $471 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $471 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $589 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $590 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $704 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $706 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $605 15d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $606 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $653 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $654 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $608 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $609 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $607 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.05 · official $616.05 (match) · 395 history records