Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaaf7…047c other 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$37 (-4%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate67%58W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$26
crypto 20% −$6
finance 15% −$36
sports 11% −$2
world 9% +$1
tech 8% +$15
economics 7% −$29
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.6% -2.7% 78% 78% +19.9%
≤30d 9 +7.6% -2.7% 78% 78% +19.9%
≤90d 9 +7.6% -2.7% 78% 78% +19.9%
all 86 -1.6% -10.9% 67% 31% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 31% -12.9%
10% -19.5% 28% -21.2%
15% -27.3% 20% -28.8%
20% -34.4% 17% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses58 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage278d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 20? Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? No 28¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 18? Down 29¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 26? Down 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 17? Up 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) KT Rolster 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 17? Down 39¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on February 25? Down 44¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 19? Down 41¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 29? Yes 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 23? Down 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? No 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 23? Up 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? No 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in January? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? No 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 11? Up 44¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 31? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$5 +32%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$4 +63%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +53%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +45%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 07 $62 +$4 +6%
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 07 $28 −$28 -100%
US strikes Iraq by March 7? Mar 02 $5 $0 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 02 $77 +$1 +1%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on February 27? Feb 28 $12 +$8 +61%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 26? Feb 27 $7 +$13 +170%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 26? Feb 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on February 25? Feb 26 $18 +$2 +11%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on February 25? Feb 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on February 24? Feb 25 $9 +$11 +127%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 24? Feb 25 $9 +$11 +133%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on February 23? Feb 24 $9 +$11 +127%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 23? Feb 23 $9 −$9 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 23? Feb 22 $8 −$8 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on February 20? Feb 21 $9 +$11 +113%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on February 20? Feb 21 $9 +$11 +127%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 20? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 19? Feb 20 $10 +$10 +96%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 19? Feb 19 $8 −$8 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 18? Feb 18 $30 −$14 -47%
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 18 $18 +$2 +10%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 18 $18 +$2 +10%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 13 $10 −$6 -59%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 13 $10 −$3 -26%
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 13 $18 +$2 +10%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on February 12? Feb 13 $18 +$2 +10%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 12 $11 +$9 +84%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $3 +$7 +250%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $3 +$7 +273%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 08 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 20h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 91¢ $9 22h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 55¢ $6 23h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 23h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 32h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 47h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? SELL Yes 73¢ $36 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? SELL No 29¢ $29 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY No 26¢ $26 99d
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 28¢ $28 99d
US strikes Iraq by March 7? SELL No 26¢ $5 104d
US strikes Iraq by March 7? BUY No 24¢ $5 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? SELL No 78¢ $32 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? SELL No 78¢ $46 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 77¢ $77 104d
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on February 27? BUY Down 62¢ $12 107d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 26? BUY Down 46¢ $0 108d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 26? BUY Down 46¢ $9 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records