Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AA 0xaaf7…62a1 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$53 (-10%) realized −$54 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$38
14 days−$63
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$79
crypto 5% +$16
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +15.5% +4.5% 69% 69% -18.2%
≤30d 20 +7.8% -2.5% 65% 65% -21.5%
≤90d 20 +7.8% -2.5% 65% 65% -21.5%
all 20 +7.8% -2.5% 65% 65% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 65% -21.5%
10% -11.8% 65% -29.0%
15% -20.3% 60% -35.9%
20% -28.1% 35% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$30 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage14d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $23 +$14 +61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 +$19 +89%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $32 +$14 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $58 +$24 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$17 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$16 +66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$9 +61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$7 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $38 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $44 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $42 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $82 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $58 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.70 · official $37.70 (match) · 39 history records