Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

AA 0xaaf6…569a other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$306 (-7%) realized −$253 · open −$53

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate41%9W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$183per market

Trades / day8.4pace

Fees−$16est.

Kalshi-fit30%portable

Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-16.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-7.2%	-16.0%	41%	36%	-20.5%
≤30d	22	-7.2%	-16.0%	41%	36%	-20.5%
≤90d	22	-7.2%	-16.0%	41%	36%	-20.5%
all	22	-7.2%	-16.0%	41%	36%	-20.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.0%	36%	-20.5%
10%	-24.1%	36%	-28.1%
15%	-31.4%	23%	-35.0%
20%	-38.1%	23%	-41.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +35% → late -49% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$103 vs −$109 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$45

Realized−$253

Unrealized−$53

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses9 / 13

Est. fees paid−$16

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage7d

Avg bet$183

Trades / day8.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	6¢	3¢	$98	$45	−$53 (-54%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$27	−$5	-20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$82	+$29	+35%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$64	+$18	+28%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$67	−$65	-97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye?	Jun 15	$115	−$115	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$291	−$253	-87%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 15	$38	−$38	-100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$1,331	−$226	-17%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 14	$171	−$167	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$187	−$16	-9%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$118	−$87	-74%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$189	−$186	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$100	+$64	+64%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$55	−$29	-53%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$106	+$146	+137%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$101	+$5	+5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$206	−$206	-100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 13	$103	+$206	+200%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 13	$153	+$38	+24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$147	+$139	+95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$169	−$22	-13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$228	+$283	+124%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	11¢	$21	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	4¢	$25	1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$27	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	11¢	$52	2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$110	4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	73¢	$82	7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	SELL Yes	19¢	$81	7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$64	9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$67	9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$203	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$171	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	27¢	$171	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$187	2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$187	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$125	2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$125	2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$38	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	25¢	$38	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$166	2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$166	2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$172	2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$172	2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$151	2d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	27¢	$50	2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$50	2d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	27¢	$50	2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$50	2d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	27¢	$15	2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	SELL Yes	5¢	$12	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.48 · official $210.85 · 68 history records