Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaaf5…95ad
crypto · 646 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$4,830 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,475 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$1,516
Realized+$4,475
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses347 / 295
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions4
Markets (closed)642 / 646
History coverage137d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 4 History 642 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days+$8
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $940 $940 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $511 $527 +$16 (+3%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster 24¢ 24¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 DN SOOPers 38¢ $169 $0 −$169 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 71¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 73¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 42¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 50¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 54¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Yes $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 22¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 51¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17? Down 44¢ $205 $0 −$205 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14? Down 33¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs Hanwha Life Esports 47¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 42¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 KT Rolster 71¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) DN SOOPers 64¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 9? Down 56¢ $222 $0 −$222 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$15 -59%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,677 −$110 -7%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $1,003 +$143 +14%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $412 −$10 -2%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $43 +$17 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 21 $9 −$3 -34%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $84 +$1 +2%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 20 $204 −$118 -58%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $30 +$26 +85%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 16 $60 +$20 +34%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $128 +$11 +9%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $422 −$1 -0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 15 $74 +$77 +103%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 15 $81 +$67 +83%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $21 −$4 -19%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 14 $18 +$19 +102%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 14 $183 +$80 +44%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $180 +$25 +14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $24 −$24 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 12 $6 −$5 -89%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 10 $372 +$20 +6%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e May 10 $1,010 −$160 -16%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 10 $99 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 10 $98 +$86 +88%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $54 −$49 -90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $59 −$25 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 10 $55 −$15 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 10 $15 −$8 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 10 $31 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 10 $3 −$3 -92%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 10 $46 +$74 +158%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $46 +$23 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 09 $14 +$6 +45%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? May 09 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 09 $61 +$55 +90%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $129 −$128 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? May 09 $84 +$79 +94%
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 08 $83 +$10 +12%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 08 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in April? May 07 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $14 +$11 +82%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 27 $449 −$196 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 27 $7 +$3 +35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 15 $606 −$164 -27%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $232 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 14 $26 −$15 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 34% +$1,015
economics 21% +$592
politics 20% +$2,199
other 7% +$97
crypto 6% +$309
world 6% +$563
finance 4% −$989
tech 1% +$123
culture 0% +$560
weather 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $37 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 10¢ $10 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $12 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $942 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 21h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 21h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 21h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 21h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 21h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 21h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 21h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 21h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 21h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 21h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 22h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 22h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 22h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 23h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $27 23h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 24h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 24h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 25h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 25h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 25h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 25h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 26h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 26h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -59.3% -63.1% 0% 0% -63.1%
≤30d 16 +18.3% +7.0% 56% 44% -7.0%
≤90d 271 -7.0% -15.9% 51% 41% -10.2%
all 642 -0.0% -9.5% 54% 39% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 39% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 31% -14.5%
15% -26.1% 26% -22.8%
20% -33.3% 20% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,515.79 · official $1,515.73 (match) · 3500 history records