Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaf4…7883 politics 107 markets active 600d ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$364,418 (+37%) realized +$364,418 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +154% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +77% what you keep after slip
Net edge+77%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate74%80W / 28L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$9,149per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,065
7 days+$3,065
14 days+$3,065
30 days+$3,065
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% +$303,111
other 28% −$5,585
sports 5% +$9,788
economics 4% +$22,488
crypto 1% +$1,380
world 0% +$598
weather 0% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+130.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2000.0% +1800.0% 100% 100% +1800.0%
≤30d 1 +2000.0% +1800.0% 100% 100% +1800.0%
≤90d 1 +2000.0% +1800.0% 100% 100% +1800.0%
all 108 +154.2% +130.0% 74% 49% +15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +130.0% 49% +15.1%
10% +108.0% 34% +4.1%
15% ← realistic here +87.9% 31% -6.0%
20% +69.4% 24% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5006% too few recent
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +154% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$10,004) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +160% → late +149% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,485 vs −$3,710 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$364,418
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses80 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 107
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$9,149
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Biden finish his term? Jun 29 $61 +$3,065 +5006%
Will RFK Jr. win <1% of the popular vote? Jan 17 $410 −$410 -100%
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024? Jan 17 $810 +$755 +93%
OpenSea token >1 billion a week after launch? Jan 17 $0 +$625 +1769798%
Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Dec 03 $20,022 −$14,403 -72%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Dec 03 $56,171 −$52,038 -93%
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electio Dec 03 $38 +$181 +477%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 Dec 03 $387 +$1,179 +305%
Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Seas Dec 03 $198 −$198 -100%
Trump wins every swing state? Dec 03 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House Dec 03 $432 −$432 -100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Dec 03 $25,003 +$45,875 +184%
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Dec 03 $7,128 −$6,504 -91%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Dec 03 $938 +$2,107 +225%
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? Nov 10 $1,267 −$673 -53%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $26,730 +$40,924 +153%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? Nov 10 $10,207 +$4,664 +46%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $11,812 +$2,265 +19%
Trump sentenced to prison in NY case before election? Nov 05 $100 +$60 +60%
Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Seas Nov 05 $1,548 +$266 +17%
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October? Nov 05 $2,905 +$595 +20%
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election? Oct 30 $1,856 +$233 +13%
1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election? Oct 13 $594 +$1,098 +185%
Trump blowout victory? Oct 10 $2,627 +$30 +1%
East coast port strike ends by next Friday? Oct 04 $6,794 +$86 +1%
East coast port strike ends by Friday? Oct 04 $1,053 +$2 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Sep 24 $50 +$73 +146%
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024? Sep 24 $8 +$192 +2318%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Sep 24 $832 +$470 +56%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? Sep 24 $11,676 +$759 +6%
Fed rate cut by September 18? Sep 18 $1,611 +$7,935 +493%
Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points in Sept meeting? Sep 18 $218 −$181 -83%
Trump posts 25-29 times on X? Sep 05 $3,451 +$54 +2%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the World Series? Sep 04 $21,357 +$43 +0%
US Open: Muchova vs. Haddad Maia Sep 04 $1,555 +$605 +39%
US Open: Zverev vs. Nakashima Sep 02 $3,317 −$753 -23%
US Open: Popyrin vs. Tiafoe Sep 02 $2,404 −$2,404 -100%
Fed emergency rate cut in August? Sep 01 $18,645 +$498 +3%
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31? Sep 01 $31,847 +$3,888 +12%
Trump fires campaign manager in August? Sep 01 $7,734 +$1,072 +14%
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? Sep 01 $151,129 +$7,953 +5%
RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address? Aug 24 $1,040 +$210 +20%
Trump posts 20-29 times on X? Aug 24 $334 +$1,893 +567%
Will Beyoncé perform at the DNC? Aug 23 $13,957 +$2,513 +18%
Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC? Aug 23 $21,390 +$1,044 +5%
Will Kamala Harris say "Obama" during DNC speech? Aug 23 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Donald" or "Trump" 5 or more times during DNC Aug 23 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Kamala Harris say "Weird" or "Weirdo" during DNC speech? Aug 23 $1,869 −$1,365 -73%
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC? Aug 23 $90,494 +$588 +1%
Will Kamala Harris say "Oakland" during DNC speech? Aug 23 $1,040 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D House SELL No 85¢ $763 600d
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? SELL Yes 50¢ $2,634 603d
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? SELL Yes 50¢ $333 603d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 SELL Yes $23 604d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 SELL Yes $90 604d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 SELL Yes $90 604d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 SELL Yes $10 604d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 SELL Yes $0 604d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 SELL Yes $100 604d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 SELL Yes $100 604d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 SELL Yes $235 604d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $119 607d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 607d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 607d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $3 607d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 608d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 608d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 608d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 608d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 608d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 608d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 608d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 608d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 608d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 608d
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 608d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 SELL Yes 11¢ $384 615d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 SELL Yes 11¢ $10 615d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 SELL Yes 11¢ $2 615d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 SELL Yes 11¢ $131 615d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.75 · official $107.75 (match) · 3500 history records