Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:09:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaf3…291b other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$93 (+1%) realized −$36 · open +$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$581per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$111
14 days−$111
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$376
other 20% −$694
finance 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-69.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 22 -86.3% -87.6% 14% 0% -28.4%
≤90d 39 -66.6% -69.7% 33% 0% -19.2%
all 39 -66.6% -69.7% 33% 0% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.7% 0% -19.2%
10% -72.6% 0% -27.0%
15% -75.3% 0% -34.0%
20% -77.7% 0% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$51 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$575
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Open positions43
Markets (closed)39 / 21
History coverage75d
Avg bet$581
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 19¢ $7 $81 +$74 (+1017%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $7 $61 +$54 (+737%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $7 $60 +$53 (+725%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $7 $47 +$40 (+547%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $7 $36 +$29 (+392%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $7 $23 +$16 (+219%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $7 $23 +$16 (+219%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $7 $22 +$15 (+207%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+106%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+82%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-31%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-61%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$6 (-79%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$6 (-79%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $139 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $139 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $138 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $138 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $137 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $136 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 06 $133 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 22? Apr 22 $133 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $133 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $9,239 +$8 +0%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 15 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $132 −$132 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 12? Apr 12 $132 −$132 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $430 −$430 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $139 19d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $139 22d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $138 26d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $138 30d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $138 34d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $137 35d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $137 44d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $136 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? BUY No 97¢ $133 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $133 62d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $133 68d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $132 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,247 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $9,239 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $132 70d
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $132 72d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $132 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $121 74d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 75d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $430 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.28 · official $575.28 (match) · 215 history records