Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AA 0xaaf2…eafd crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$272 (-2%) realized −$271 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate84%42W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$30
14 days−$169
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$67
crypto 29% −$169
sports 10% −$213
other 6% +$34
finance 5% +$1
economics 3% +$3
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.4% -27.0% 67% 33% -20.0%
≤30d 5 -21.5% -29.0% 60% 20% -28.0%
≤90d 20 -5.0% -14.1% 70% 5% -11.2%
all 50 -3.3% -12.5% 84% 2% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 2% -11.0%
10% -20.9% 2% -19.5%
15% -28.5% 0% -27.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$62 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$271
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses42 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage222d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $102 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $76 +$24 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $119 +$11 +10%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $272 −$139 -51%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $274 +$5 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $743 +$24 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $248 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 27 $248 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $248 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 27 $591 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 26 $732 +$6 +1%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 16 $118 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 06 $438 −$3 -1%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 24 $377 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 22 $936 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $219 +$10 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 15 $464 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 13 $493 −$17 -3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 05 $474 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $237 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $228 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Mar 31 $460 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 27 $462 +$3 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 23 $2,541 +$20 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 21 $449 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 18 $227 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 09 $410 +$9 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 07 $407 +$2 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $361 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 15? Dec 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 12? Dec 15 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 11? Dec 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 10? Dec 10 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $244 −$209 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $244 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 6? Dec 07 $242 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 4? Dec 06 $122 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 3? Dec 04 $238 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 2? Dec 03 $238 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 1? Dec 02 $237 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 28? Nov 29 $234 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 27? Nov 28 $234 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 26? Nov 27 $233 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 25? Nov 26 $233 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 24? Nov 25 $230 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 23? Nov 24 $230 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 22? Nov 23 $229 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 21? Nov 22 $218 +$12 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 20? Nov 21 $216 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 19? Nov 20 $216 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $103 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $66 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $119 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL No 47¢ $133 13d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $272 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $278 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $274 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $270 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $252 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $248 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? SELL Yes 99¢ $185 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $248 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $254 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $251 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? SELL No 99¢ $248 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $230 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $18 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $243 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $240 33d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $185 33d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $62 34d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $141 37d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 38d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $186 39d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $247 42d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 42d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $119 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.50 · official $101.50 (match) · 247 history records