Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaf1…a931 crypto 426 markets active 6d ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$815 (-9%) realized −$815 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate29%170W / 424L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$404
7 days−$412
14 days−$436
30 days−$696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -70.6% -73.4% 4% 2% -39.3%
≤30d 528 -12.7% -21.0% 28% 14% -17.5%
≤90d 594 -12.1% -20.4% 29% 16% -17.5%
all 594 -12.1% -20.4% 29% 16% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 16% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 11% -25.4%
15% -35.0% 8% -32.6%
20% -41.4% 7% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$815
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses170 / 424
Open positions0
Markets (closed)594 / 426
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 594 Trades
no open positions (295 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records