Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaf1…8707 sports 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%43W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$57
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$52
other 16% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -2.7% -12.0% 35% 32% -12.2%
≤30d 116 +8.3% -2.0% 37% 34% -12.3%
≤90d 116 +8.3% -2.0% 37% 34% -12.3%
all 116 +8.3% -2.0% 37% 34% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 34% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.4% 33% -20.7%
15% -20.0% 29% -28.4%
20% -27.8% 24% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses43 / 73
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage11d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $7 $19 +$11 (+153%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 27¢ 30¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $13 +$11 +80%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $18 +$25 +138%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $49 −$42 -86%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $27 −$17 -63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $25 −$2 -10%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$3 -8%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $51 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$7 -36%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$2 -11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $58 −$31 -54%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$1 -28%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 +$14 +59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $26 −$12 -48%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$3 -32%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$14 +134%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$15 +97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$19 +250%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$4 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$3 +22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$22 +85%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$32 +317%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$13 +257%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$7 +365%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -53%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $34 +$20 +60%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $3 16m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 30¢ $1 44m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 16¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 84¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 37¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 55¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 45¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $5 2h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $43 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $5 6h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $13 7h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 2¢ $0 24h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 7¢ $7 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $10 24h
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $18 24h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 4¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 4¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 7¢ $15 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 32¢ $23 25h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $9 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $25 25h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 18¢ $4 25h
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.10 · official $38.10 (match) · 414 history records