Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaef…176e sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,113 (-50%) realized −$1,087 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$351
7 days−$601
14 days−$594
30 days−$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$613
crypto 34% −$245
sports 23% −$183
world 4% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-74.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -76.5% -78.7% 21% 7% -52.2%
≤30d 17 -62.5% -66.1% 35% 6% -44.5%
≤90d 17 -62.5% -66.1% 35% 6% -44.5%
all 23 -72.3% -74.9% 26% 4% -58.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.9% 4% -58.6%
10% -77.3% 0% -62.5%
15% -79.5% 0% -66.2%
20% -81.5% 0% -69.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$67 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$1,087
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage163d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 35¢ 48¢ $43 $60 +$17 (+39%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $500 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $78 −$77 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $39 −$38 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $73 −$72 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $151 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$1 +2%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $38 in January? Jan 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 29 $173 −$173 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ilya "⁠m0NESY⁠" Osipov win the HLTV Awper of the Year award Jan 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $44 29m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $51 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $25 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 18h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $26 26h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $27 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 43¢ $10 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $39 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $41 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $27 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $151 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 97¢ $100 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 97¢ $100 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $61 7d
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY Yes $7 142d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 142d
Will Hyperliquid hit $38 in January? BUY Yes 25¢ $33 142d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 142d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $23 142d
Will Hyperliquid hit $38 in January? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 142d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.05 · official $117.05 (match) · 50 history records