Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaaef…472a
politics · 103 markets active 7d ago
0.0score
+$86,398 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$86,389 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$110
Realized+$86,389
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses71 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage292d
Avg bet$14,350
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 1 History 102 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,505
14 days+$4,772
30 days+$5,098
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $101 $110 +$9 (+9%)
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Yes 60¢ $1,999 $0 −$1,999 (-100%)
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Yes 63¢ $137 $0 −$137 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Yes $8,634 $0 −$8,634 (-100%)
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Makhmudov 14¢ $301 $0 −$301 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 85¢ $472 $0 −$472 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Yes 19¢ $808 $0 −$808 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ $1,400 $0 −$1,400 (-100%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? No 63¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)? Yes $389 $0 −$389 (-100%)
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28? Yes 44¢ $1,955 $0 −$1,955 (-100%)
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Yes 30¢ $1,666 $0 −$1,666 (-100%)
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025) Yes 76¢ $3,685 $0 −$3,685 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Yes 18¢ $202 $0 −$202 (-100%)
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Tate 83¢ $11,077 $0 −$11,077 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1,772 +$3,505 +198%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2,066 +$1,267 +61%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $1,555 +$93 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $3,100 +$233 +8%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 10 $29,560 −$8,092 -27%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament May 02 $96 +$4 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? May 02 $5,052 +$168 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $5,777 +$2,000 +35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 22 $9,221 +$1,511 +16%
Boxing: Conor Benn vs. Regis Prograis Apr 14 $2,000 +$222 +11%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 12 $15,841 +$2,574 +16%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Apr 11 $309 −$301 -97%
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $4,112 +$106 +3%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $3,609 +$1,103 +31%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $18,226 +$758 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 03 $889 −$489 -55%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 02 $2,266 −$444 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $4,927 +$628 +13%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 31 $9,358 +$631 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 29 $2,040 −$1,148 -56%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $4,249 +$385 +9%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 26 $4,833 +$722 +15%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 24 $10,239 +$2,048 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 21 $9,815 +$1,243 +13%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference? Mar 19 $5,472 +$83 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $51,606 −$596 -1%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Mar 12 $2,003 +$1,076 +54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 09 $1,822 −$589 -32%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 07 $1,400 +$718 +51%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $5,338 +$217 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? Mar 01 $70 +$10 +15%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Mar 01 $1,071 +$40 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Mar 01 $3,791 +$653 +17%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 01 $5,222 +$333 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $8,667 −$167 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 23 $4,888 +$48 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 23 $1,622 −$195 -12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 23 $13,422 +$1,363 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 18 $1,889 +$333 +18%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February? Feb 18 $5,277 +$278 +5%
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market cl Feb 18 $3,139 +$2,517 +80%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? Feb 15 $9,302 +$2,291 +25%
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Feb 13 $1,666 −$1,666 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $11,660 −$3,048 -26%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $389 −$389 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $70,422 −$59,173 -84%
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28? Feb 08 $1,955 −$1,955 -100%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Cos Feb 03 $811 +$300 +37%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Feb 03 $1,433 +$789 +55%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 03 $4,833 +$722 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 41% +$113,534
politics 37% −$41,199
other 7% +$8,815
world 7% +$5,745
culture 3% +$3,600
sports 2% −$4,638
finance 1% +$735
crypto 0% −$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $6 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $39 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $184 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $118 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $39 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $150 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $57 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $403 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $91 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $231 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 30¢ $319 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 63¢ $3,522 12d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 49¢ $201 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +197.8% +169.4% 100% 100% +169.4%
≤30d 4 +68.2% +52.1% 100% 50% +44.8%
≤90d 26 +8.2% -2.1% 77% 42% -6.0%
all 102 -4.5% -13.6% 70% 34% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 34% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 18% -13.4%
15% -29.4% 11% -21.7%
20% -36.3% 9% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.78 · official $109.78 (match) · 3500 history records