Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaed…bc74 crypto 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,108 (-19%) realized −$1,108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%54W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$213
7 days−$596
14 days−$596
30 days−$596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$443
crypto 23% −$68
sports 7% +$41
world 3% −$95
politics 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -18.1% -25.9% 26% 26% -21.2%
≤30d 65 -18.1% -25.9% 26% 26% -21.2%
≤90d 142 -11.5% -20.0% 38% 37% -19.1%
all 142 -11.5% -20.0% 38% 37% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 37% -19.1%
10% -27.6% 35% -26.8%
15% -34.6% 32% -33.9%
20% -41.0% 25% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses54 / 88
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 164
History coverage38d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$34 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$34 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$7 +53%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $574 +$654 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$13 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$10 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$32 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$45 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$11 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$3 -21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,019 −$32 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $234 −$8 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $713 −$713 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $92 −$34 -37%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $288 −$150 -52%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$82 +80%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $233 +$71 +31%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $41 −$5 -12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $26 −$4 -17%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $138 −$78 -56%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$7 -34%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $44 −$9 -20%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 3¢ $15 31m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $22 48m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 53m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $47 56m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 58m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND W BUY 1¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 15¢ $51 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 21¢ $56 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $216.20 · 575 history records