Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AA 0xaae4…0dad other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$525 (+22%) realized +$517 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%34W / 24L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$310
7 days+$388
14 days+$430
30 days+$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$377
sports 46% +$163
world 3% −$75
crypto 1% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +16.3% +5.2% 61% 61% +5.8%
≤30d 58 +17.6% +6.4% 59% 59% +7.0%
≤90d 58 +17.6% +6.4% 59% 59% +7.0%
all 58 +17.6% +6.4% 59% 59% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 59% +7.0%
10% -3.8% 59% -3.2%
15% -13.1% 57% -12.6%
20% -21.6% 48% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$30 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$517
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses34 / 24
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage8d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 67¢ 92¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+37%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $71 −$60 -84%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$8 +56%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $61 +$40 +66%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $31 +$34 +112%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $66 +$37 +56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$11 +35%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$29 +143%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$13 +66%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 +$73 +68%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +116%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 +$81 +81%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $87 +$50 +58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 +$11 +42%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $29 +$19 +66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $143 +$74 +52%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $12 +$14 +116%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$17 +163%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $41 +$22 +53%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $168 +$78 +46%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $21 +$20 +99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$15 +143%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $61 +$36 +59%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +186%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $61 +$23 +37%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $107 +$50 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $117 −$114 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $81 +$73 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $35 −$27 -78%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $33 +$28 +84%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +74%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$9 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $119 +$63 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Qatar 12¢ $12 11m
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 69¢ $20 45m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $20 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 70¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $31 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $61 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $66 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $78 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $31 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $51 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $20 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $31 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $39 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $77 27h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $31 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 29h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $4 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $25 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $12 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $87 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $8 43h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $20 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.62 · official $42.03 (match) · 129 history records