Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaae4…5ae6 politics 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,016 (-1%) realized −$1,016 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate25%28W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$850per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$17
14 days−$23
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$45
other 38% −$93
sports 11% −$960
world 4% +$74
culture 3% −$4
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -18.4% -26.2% 10% 0% -11.2%
all 114 -4.6% -13.7% 25% 7% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 7% -10.5%
10% -21.9% 7% -19.1%
15% -29.5% 7% -26.9%
20% -36.4% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,079) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$860
Realized−$1,016
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses28 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage132d
Avg bet$850
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $861 $860 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $749 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,129 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,354 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,943 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,470 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,532 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,509 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,386 −$3 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 03 $422 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 03 $631 +$1 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,168 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,993 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $979 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,666 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,248 −$3 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,204 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 02 $357 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $691 +$1 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $495 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,135 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,386 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,271 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,356 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,966 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $991 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $1,047 $0 -0%
Jazz vs. Heat Apr 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-7.5) Apr 07 $16 −$16 -100%
CF América vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $562 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $563 2h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $747 3h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $749 6h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $861 26h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,039 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,041 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,640 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,642 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,639 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,641 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,618 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,620 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,602 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,604 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,468 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,470 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,358 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,359 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,069 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,070 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,627 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,629 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,516 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,518 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,067 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,068 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $724 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $725 18d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $637 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $860.39 · official $860.39 (match) · 337 history records