Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaae2…dbda other 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,471 (+2%) realized +$1,809 · open −$338
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%84W / 58L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$5,734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$96
14 days−$89
30 days+$1,414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$54
tech 10% +$1,020
crypto 8% +$808
economics 1% −$72
world 0% −$11
sports 0% −$78
politics 0% +$9
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.1% -20.5% 75% 50% -19.0%
≤30d 12 +130.1% +108.1% 83% 67% +53.7%
≤90d 19 +61.3% +45.9% 58% 42% -25.7%
all 142 +4.2% -5.7% 59% 31% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 31% -6.5%
10% -14.8% 25% -15.5%
15% -23.0% 20% -23.6%
20% -30.5% 14% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$167 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$5,734
Realized+$1,809
Unrealized−$338
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses84 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)142 / 153
History coverage193d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 84¢ 76¢ $2,413 $2,199 −$213 (-9%)
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 82¢ 94¢ $1,150 $1,327 +$177 (+15%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 87¢ 85¢ $868 $846 −$22 (-3%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 59¢ 55¢ $565 $521 −$44 (-8%)
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 58¢ 56¢ $288 $278 −$11 (-4%)
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 22¢ $337 $181 −$155 (-46%)
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $159 $156 −$3 (-2%)
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $99 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 44¢ 44¢ $66 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 59¢ 60¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 9¢ $96 $31 −$65 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $41 +$15 +37%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $165 +$20 +12%
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 26 $565 +$14 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $147 −$145 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? Jun 09 $4 +$9 +239%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 in June? Jun 08 $175 −$25 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 06 $88 +$573 +652%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Jun 06 $108 +$234 +216%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 05 $32 +$96 +300%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? Jun 04 $235 +$265 +113%
Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $364 +$350 +96%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? May 26 $1,570 −$602 -38%
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 04 $1,740 +$20 +1%
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $298 −$298 -100%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $905 −$655 -72%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $1,180 −$1,091 -92%
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $340 −$320 -94%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Mar 28 $500 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Mar 26 $510 −$375 -74%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru Mar 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 22 $40 $0 +0%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 13? Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru Mar 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in Febru Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March? Mar 19 $36 −$20 -56%
Will Solana dip to $70 in March? Mar 16 $180 −$128 -71%
Will Lighter dip to $1 before 2027? Mar 09 $1,476 +$1,625 +110%
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 03 $180 $0 -0%
Will Netflix reach $228 in February? Feb 28 $319 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of February? Feb 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of February? Feb 28 $294 +$54 +18%
Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of February? Feb 28 $124 +$1 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $820 end of February? Feb 28 $150 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $780 end of February? Feb 28 $283 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of February? Feb 28 $358 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of February? Feb 28 $190 +$484 +255%
Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of February? Feb 28 $399 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of February? Feb 28 $432 +$508 +117%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of February? Feb 28 $1,271 −$94 -7%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of February? Feb 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $840 end of February? Feb 28 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of February? Feb 28 $76 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of February? Feb 27 $51 −$36 -70%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of February? Feb 27 $532 +$376 +71%
Will Netflix dip to $70 in February? Feb 27 $353 −$154 -44%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of February? Feb 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Meta dip to $620 in February? Feb 26 $74 +$104 +140%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of February? Feb 26 $160 −$140 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $57 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $34 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $324 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $56 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $185 8h
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 8h
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $91 8h
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $159 8h
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $292 8h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $514 8h
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL No 97¢ $422 8h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $775 22h
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 44¢ $27 3d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 44¢ $1 4d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 44¢ $1 4d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 44¢ $3 4d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 44¢ $16 4d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 44¢ $18 4d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 44¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $147 4d
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 10d
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $108 11d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 16d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 16d
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 17d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 in June? SELL Yes 30¢ $131 17d
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 78¢ $367 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,733.88 · official $5,733.88 (match) · 1007 history records