Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:39:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AA 0xaadf…7cc1 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$298 (+23%) realized +$342 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$196
14 days+$196
30 days+$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$169
sports 33% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +40.5% +27.1% 83% 83% +30.5%
≤30d 7 +46.9% +32.9% 86% 86% +39.7%
≤90d 7 +46.9% +32.9% 86% 86% +39.7%
all 7 +46.9% +32.9% 86% 86% +39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.9% 86% +39.7%
10% +20.2% 86% +26.3%
15% +8.5% 86% +14.1%
20% -2.1% 86% +2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$63 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.14 per $1 lost it wins $6.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$628
Realized+$342
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)7 / 17
History coverage31d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $99 $121 +$22 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $109 $87 −$22 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $99 $81 −$18 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $76 $46 −$30 (-39%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $23 $34 +$11 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $44 +$28 +65%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $52 +$48 +93%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $32 +$17 +54%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $203 +$131 +65%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$34 +67%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $147 +$126 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $41 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $44 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $8 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $33 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $40 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $44 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 39h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $50 40h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $32 47h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $203 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $38 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $46 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $63 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $78 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $99 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $99 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $147 25d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $38 28d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 28d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $71 28d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 30d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $627.74 · official $627.74 (match) · 60 history records