Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaadf…2964 crypto 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%76W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$10
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$3
other 38% −$16
sports 7% +$6
weather 2% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -16.4% -24.3% 32% 32% -15.1%
≤30d 35 -7.8% -16.6% 40% 37% -13.8%
≤90d 103 -9.1% -17.8% 56% 46% -14.8%
all 130 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 48% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 48% -12.4%
10% -19.4% 35% -20.7%
15% -27.2% 26% -28.4%
20% -34.4% 21% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses76 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)130 / 138
History coverage91d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$16 +143%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 +$1 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? May 28 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 +$1 +118%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1 +$1 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18? May 22 $2 +$2 +88%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 18? May 17 $2 −$1 -61%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17? May 17 $1 +$2 +184%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 20 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 20 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 19 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 25m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 25m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 58m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 59m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 9h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 11h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 18h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 23h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 33h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 62¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.90 · official $7.90 (match) · 320 history records