Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaade…8dd1
crypto · 928 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$469 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$480 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$279
Realized−$480
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses633 / 287
Open positions9
Markets (closed)920 / 928
History coverage29d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day87.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 9 History 920 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$62
14 days−$365
30 days−$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $192 $200 +$8 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 92¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$7 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$9 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$35 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$31 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 08 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $37 +$31 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $19 +$13 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$17 +83%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 07 $61 −$12 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 07 $41 +$27 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 07 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $41 +$23 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 07 $41 +$37 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$465
tech 3% +$8
other 2% −$19
world 1% $0
politics 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$3
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 53% -13.8%
≤30d 920 -9.7% -18.3% 69% 52% -14.3%
≤90d 920 -9.7% -18.3% 69% 52% -14.3%
all 920 -9.7% -18.3% 69% 52% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover87.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 52% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 13% -22.5%
15% -33.2% 8% -30.0%
20% -39.8% 7% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.22 · official $279.22 (match) · 3500 history records