Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaad7…828a world 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$14
sports 18% −$49
other 17% +$29
politics 12% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 78% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 29 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 66 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 2% -9.4%
all 88 +2.7% -7.1% 36% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 9% -9.6%
10% -16.0% 8% -18.2%
15% -24.1% 6% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 56
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage520d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $58 +$2 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $47 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -15%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $160 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $31 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $122 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $106 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $86 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $75 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $77 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $62 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $82 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $76 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $42 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $77 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 21 $74 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $7 −$1 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $37 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the mos May 07 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $116 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $41 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $37 $0 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $83 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $2 $0 -14%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $119 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $28 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $17 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $45 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $23 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $23 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $41 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $17 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $31 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 341 history records