Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaad6…8b65 sports 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 498d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$519 (-6%) realized −$517 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate57%78W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$351
crypto 31% +$24
other 19% −$169
finance 6% −$49
economics 2% +$6
world 2% +$3
politics 0% −$12
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -19.8% -27.4% 43% 29% -23.1%
≤30d 43 -10.3% -18.9% 58% 9% -11.6%
≤90d 82 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 15% -9.3%
all 136 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 26% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 26% -14.8%
10% -19.9% 18% -23.0%
15% -27.6% 15% -30.4%
20% -34.7% 14% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$32 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

498d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$517
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses78 / 58
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)136 / 140
History coverage498d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 36¢ 36¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Iraq 24¢ 24¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? Yes 32¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $46 +$34 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $54 +$46 +86%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $55 −$54 -99%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 21 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $92 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 21 $48 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $0 $0 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $50 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 04 $99 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 04 $129 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $119 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $8 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 03 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 03 $78 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 03 $82 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 03 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $99 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 03 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 01 $99 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $129 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 01 $49 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 01 $49 +$5 +10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $69 Week of May 25 2026? Jun 01 $40 +$10 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 28 $36 −$6 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 28 $51 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 28 $52 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 28 $62 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 28 $65 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 28 $43 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 28 $49 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $52 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 25 2026? May 28 $2 $0 -28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of May 25 2026? May 28 $0 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 25 2026? May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 25 2026? May 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 17 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 17 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 17 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 17 $71 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 17 $69 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Iraq 24¢ $12 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $37 1h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $46 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $55 23h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $53 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $32 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $54 23h
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 91¢ $91 31h
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $92 32h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 35h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 1 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $47 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.51 · official $67.51 (match) · 569 history records