Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaad6…8848 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$315 (-53%) realized −$316 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$271
14 days−$418
30 days−$418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$338
sports 15% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-80.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -78.3% -80.3% 14% 14% -75.7%
≤90d 7 -78.3% -80.3% 14% 14% -75.7%
all 7 -78.3% -80.3% 14% 14% -75.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.3% 14% -75.7%
10% -82.2% 14% -78.0%
15% -83.9% 14% -80.1%
20% -85.5% 14% -82.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$78 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$316
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage8d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $52 −$51 -97%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 52m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $61 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $61 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.66 · official $16.66 (match) · 13 history records