Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AA 0xaad5…ac2e crypto 806 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,589 (-9%) realized −$23,485 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%397W / 488L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$903est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$926now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 122d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$13,755
sports 21% −$4,791
other 1% −$312
weather 0% −$627
tech 0% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -55.7% -59.9% 10% 9% -72.6%
≤30d 222 -37.1% -43.1% 26% 26% -61.2%
≤90d 740 -12.0% -20.4% 43% 42% -26.2%
all 885 -7.8% -16.6% 45% 44% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 44% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 42% -30.1%
15% -31.9% 40% -36.8%
20% -38.5% 36% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$287 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$926
Realized−$23,485
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses397 / 488
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$903
Open positions3
Markets (closed)885 / 806
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$337
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 885 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $380 $439 +$59 (+16%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 52¢ 34¢ $575 $379 −$196 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 57¢ 81¢ $75 $108 +$33 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 354 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Denver Pioneers vs. North Dakota State Bison Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
New Pope announced by May 9? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $216 +$181 +84%
Will Karoline Leavitt say "Egg" during next White House press briefing Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Buffett say "Elon" or "Musk" during May 3 Shareholders Meeting? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $237 −$237 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$85 -1032%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $133 −$133 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March? Jun 18 $1,420 −$1,420 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $192 −$113 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $478 −$478 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Pistons vs. Knicks Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $688 −$688 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Buffett say "Semiconductor" during May 3 Shareholders Meeting? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $158 −$158 -100%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$110 +128571%
Pacers vs. Bucks Jun 18 $123 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
George Mason Patriots vs. Richmond Spiders Jun 18 $713 −$713 -100%
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Indiana Hoosiers Jun 18 $29 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $691 −$238 -34%
Will Buffett say "Charlie" or "Munger" during May 3 Shareholders Meeti Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $759 −$759 -100%
California Golden Bears vs. Syracuse Orange Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $217 −$217 -100%
Idaho Vandals vs. Montana State Bobcats Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $396 −$396 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $192 −$192 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers Jun 18 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $456 −$456 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 4m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 55¢ $102 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 14m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 34¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $925.71 · official $886.89 · 3500 history records