Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaad4…c333
crypto · 1548 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$116 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$115 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$115
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1321 / 225
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1546 / 1548
History coverage71d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 1546 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$38
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Up 77¢ 74¢ $17 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 78¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - April 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - April 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$13 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 30 $37 −$35 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 30 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 30 $29 −$4 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 30 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 30 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 29 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 29 $17 −$9 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 29 $14 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $7 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% −$119
other 16% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +7.0% -3.2% 75% 47% -7.4%
≤30d 210 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 42% -15.5%
≤90d 1546 -2.8% -12.0% 85% 19% -12.6%
all 1546 -2.8% -12.0% 85% 19% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 19% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 10% -21.0%
15% -28.1% 8% -28.6%
20% -35.2% 6% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.39 · official $18.01 (match) · 3500 history records