Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AA 0xaad4…8c81 crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24 (+13%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.6% +1.0% 100% 14% +1.4%
≤30d 7 +11.6% +1.0% 100% 14% +1.4%
≤90d 7 +11.6% +1.0% 100% 14% +1.4%
all 7 +11.6% +1.0% 100% 14% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 14% +1.4%
10% -8.7% 14% -8.3%
15% -17.5% 14% -17.1%
20% -25.6% 0% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records