Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaad3…e666 world 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,363 (+9%) realized +$1,143 · open +$220
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%64W / 85L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days+$359
14 days+$368
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$202
crypto 20% +$705
economics 8% −$250
other 7% +$263
finance 3% +$290
politics 1% +$143
tech 1% −$47
sports 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +54.6% +39.9% 75% 58% +17.4%
≤30d 30 +8.0% -2.3% 43% 37% -5.9%
≤90d 68 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 37% -0.3%
all 149 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 37% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 37% -1.7%
10% -18.0% 32% -11.1%
15% -25.9% 24% -19.7%
20% -33.2% 19% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$26 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$1,110
Realized+$1,143
Unrealized+$220
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses64 / 85
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)149 / 163
History coverage581d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 25¢ $50 $285 +$235 (+471%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 46¢ 60¢ $200 $259 +$59 (+29%)
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 59¢ 65¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 21¢ 38¢ $60 $109 +$49 (+82%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 70¢ 38¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 64¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 61¢ 62¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 67¢ 58¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? No 59¢ 56¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-45%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $40 $6 −$34 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $150 +$79 +53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $162 +$88 +54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $206 +$9 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $304 +$15 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 13 $90 −$34 -38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $30 −$14 -47%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $30 −$19 -64%
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Jun 04 $500 −$67 -13%
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $52 −$18 -34%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $340 +$121 +36%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 04 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 04 $100 +$16 +16%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 04 $150 +$22 +15%
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? Jun 03 $20 −$13 -63%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $350 −$84 -24%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $100 −$3 -3%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? May 23 $50 −$10 -20%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? May 21 $100 −$11 -11%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? May 21 $100 −$10 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $200 −$60 -30%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 May 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 May 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 16 $40 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $50 −$37 -75%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $30 −$24 -79%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $20 −$11 -53%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $20 −$4 -21%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 15 $10 −$2 -24%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $105 −$12 -11%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 14 $110 −$29 -26%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 14 $20 −$11 -53%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 14 $50 +$29 +58%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 14 $50 +$21 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 14 $300 +$138 +46%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 11 $20 −$12 -59%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $150 +$162 +108%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 11 $150 +$35 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 11 $280 +$78 +28%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? May 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? BUY No 59¢ $40 58m
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $50 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $92 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $249 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 4h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $50 8h
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $50 8h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $50 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $50 13h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 61¢ $50 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 13¢ $52 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $115 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $130 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $3 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 8d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 8d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 8d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 8d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,109.53 · official $1,102.07 (match) · 592 history records