Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaca…f5d5 other 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 337d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$770 (-2%) realized −$984 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%161W / 156L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$2,437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,877
7 days−$1,649
14 days−$1,742
30 days−$1,354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$66
sports 33% −$841
world 1% +$46
crypto 0% −$89
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -36.6% -42.7% 34% 26% -20.5%
≤30d 178 -11.0% -19.4% 46% 32% -13.9%
≤90d 240 -1.7% -11.1% 52% 38% -12.6%
all 317 -1.9% -11.2% 51% 37% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 37% -12.2%
10% -19.7% 26% -20.6%
15% -27.5% 16% -28.3%
20% -34.6% 13% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$42 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

337d coverage
Net worth$2,437
Realized−$984
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses161 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions30
Markets (closed)317 / 349
History coverage337d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 95¢ 96¢ $450 $451 +$1 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 77¢ 78¢ $390 $393 +$3 (+1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $307 $304 −$2 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 48¢ 26¢ $493 $272 −$221 (-45%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $228 $227 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 96¢ 96¢ $181 $181 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 93¢ 93¢ $109 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $70 $71 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 81¢ 81¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 60¢ 100¢ $29 $48 +$19 (+67%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $23 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 8¢ 8¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+44%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 78¢ 92¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+17%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 90¢ 90¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 89¢ 90¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 82¢ 84¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 79¢ 78¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 81¢ 82¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 87¢ 88¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 91¢ 92¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 51¢ 50¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$19 +35%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $911 +$21 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $233 +$10 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $58 +$10 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $45 +$84 +186%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $232 +$321 +138%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $70 +$5 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 +$14 +426%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$5 +32%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Georgia vs. Bahrain end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 13 $61 −$5 -8%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-07? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Guatemala end in a draw? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 13 $22 −$15 -68%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 13 $57 −$29 -51%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 13 $173 −$75 -44%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 13 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 13 $359 −$359 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $201 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $21 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $41 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 96¢ $91 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 96¢ $89 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $178 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $30 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $7 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $85 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $15 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $15 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $19 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $137 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL No 94¢ $80 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL No 94¢ $236 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL No 94¢ $19 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL No 94¢ $16 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $23 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $170 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $323 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $228 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $98 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $162 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $20 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $29 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $29 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $14 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $258 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $14 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,437.29 · official $2,437.30 (match) · 2013 history records