Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaac8…33c9 sports 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,163 (-25%) realized −$7,628 · open −$535
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%61W / 102L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day124.5pace
Fees−$358est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,658
7 days−$5,848
14 days−$5,848
30 days−$10,438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$6,909
other 39% −$3,714
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -78.3% -80.3% 10% 8% -42.0%
≤30d 163 +20.8% +9.3% 37% 34% -41.0%
≤90d 163 +20.8% +9.3% 37% 34% -41.0%
all 163 +20.8% +9.3% 37% 34% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.3% 34% -41.0%
10% ← realistic here -1.2% 29% -46.7%
15% -10.7% 26% -51.8%
20% -19.5% 22% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +114% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
27.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$155 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1,006
Realized−$7,628
Unrealized−$535
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses61 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$358
Open positions5
Markets (closed)163 / 97
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$337
Trades / day124.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 80¢ $323 $742 +$419 (+130%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 20¢ $699 $206 −$492 (-70%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 33¢ 32¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 38¢ $47 $6 −$42 (-88%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? No 74¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 15 $1 −$1 -107%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 28? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -91%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -114%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 −$17 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on April 27? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 26? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -92%
Lillestrøm SK vs. Kristiansund BK: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -62%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -101%
Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 8? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 15 $1 −$2 -274%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -105%
Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Platense: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 29? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -115%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -69%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -122%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -106%
Cervia: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Gabi Boitan Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -117%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -64%
Spread: CD Coquimbo Unido (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on April 27? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 23? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 29? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $0 +$2 +892%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -107%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on April 27? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $3 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $2 30m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $42 35m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $44 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $47 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $44 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $23 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $188 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $94 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $324 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $23 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $44 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $740 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $767 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,005.60 · official $1,005.60 (match) · 3500 history records