Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:21:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaac5…c0c2 tech 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-3%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%99W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 36% +$2
other 29% +$12
crypto 10% $0
finance 9% +$5
sports 7% −$54
world 6% +$2
economics 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 62 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -7.3%
all 104 -3.9% -13.1% 95% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -12.3%
10% -21.4% 0% -20.7%
15% -29.0% 0% -28.4%
20% -35.9% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses99 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage248d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $175 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 17 $24 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $149 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $106 +$5 +5%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 22 $45 +$2 +4%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $126 +$12 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $30 $0 +2%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate after the Apr 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $330 end of March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mistral have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $52 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $144 2d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $149 19d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) BUY No 99¢ $24 20d
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY No 100¢ $54 28d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 34d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $45 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY No 95¢ $106 39d
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 41d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $126 42d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $30 44d
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 50d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $4 51d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $2 52d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 52d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 52d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 53d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 73d
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 73d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 73d
Will Solana dip to $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 74d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of April? BUY No 100¢ $3 74d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 74d
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $12 75d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 76d
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $4 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.78 · official $84.78 (match) · 220 history records