Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaac4…efa0 other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$86 (-3%) realized −$92 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%3W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day63.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$685now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$18
politics 34% −$13
culture 12% +$4
economics 7% −$19
world 4% −$5
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -21.3% -28.8% 15% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 20 -21.3% -28.8% 15% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 20 -21.3% -28.8% 15% 0% -12.9%
all 20 -21.3% -28.8% 15% 0% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 0% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 0% -21.2%
15% -41.9% 0% -28.9%
20% -47.6% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$685
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses3 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)20 / 36
History coverage3d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $366 $405 +$39 (+11%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? No 94¢ 90¢ $92 $89 −$4 (-4%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Yes 14¢ 55¢ $13 $51 +$38 (+289%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 41¢ 48¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+18%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? Yes 10¢ $5 $22 +$17 (+326%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? No 83¢ 46¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-45%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 72¢ 73¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 27¢ 20¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 39¢ 96¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+146%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 73¢ 83¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+14%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 61¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 26¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 30¢ 69¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+130%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 30¢ 58¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+94%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 59¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 39¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+151%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 22 $123 −$9 -8%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $299 −$2 -1%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 22 $91 +$3 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $273 −$3 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 -1%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 19 $400 −$8 -2%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $9 −$2 -19%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $28 −$7 -25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -27%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$2 -36%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $4 $0 -1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 -6%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 19 $87 −$5 -6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 19 $102 −$4 -4%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 19 $80 −$14 -18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$3 -34%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 29m
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY No 83¢ $15 29m
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 82¢ $91 39m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes $0 41m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes $0 42m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes $0 42m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes $0 42m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes $0 42m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes $0 42m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes $0 42m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes $0 42m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes $0 42m
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 86¢ $17 43m
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 44m
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 89¢ $123 49m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $208 49m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $11 54m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $218 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 96¢ $94 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 41¢ $20 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 94¢ $92 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes $4 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 93¢ $91 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 93¢ $94 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 93¢ $15 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 93¢ $160 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 94¢ $46 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $685.11 · official $683.15 (match) · 201 history records