Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaac2…d47c crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$123 (+3%) realized +$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate91%32W / 3L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +4.8% -5.2% 91% 26% -5.7%
≤30d 35 +4.8% -5.2% 91% 26% -5.7%
≤90d 35 +4.8% -5.2% 91% 26% -5.7%
all 35 +4.8% -5.2% 91% 26% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 26% -5.7%
10% -14.3% 6% -14.7%
15% -22.5% 3% -23.0%
20% -30.1% 0% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$27 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.47 per $1 lost it wins $3.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses32 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage5d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $290 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $267 +$27 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $263 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $257 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $246 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $202 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $211 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $199 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $195 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $194 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET Jun 26 $191 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $181 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $162 +$21 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $153 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $141 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $120 +$21 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $181 −$20 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $125 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $154 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $159 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $114 +$38 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $66 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$5 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $40 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $290 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $267 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $263 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $257 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $246 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $195 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $194 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $195 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $190 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $181 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $182 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $162 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $153 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $141 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 54¢ $61 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 41¢ $53 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 89¢ $121 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $125 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records