Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaac2…e8ce
other · 226 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$25,161 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24,912 · open −$513
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$86,776
Realized+$24,912
Unrealized−$513
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses209 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)220 / 226
History coverage57d
Avg bet$11,873
Trades / day57.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit30%
Chart Positions 7 History 220 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$722
7 days+$1,976
14 days+$5,015
30 days+$9,478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $73,683 $73,842 +$159 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $9,567 $9,576 +$9 (+0%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 71¢ 52¢ $2,602 $1,879 −$724 (-28%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,172 $1,163 −$9 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $203 $239 +$35 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 75¢ 100¢ $51 $68 +$17 (+33%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $1,176 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $16,772 +$310 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $29,076 +$39 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $15,950 +$18 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $517 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $703 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $14,098 +$79 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $14,078 +$106 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $37,975 +$71 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $43,153 +$92 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $7,047 +$92 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $22,709 +$50 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $36,392 +$250 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5,790 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $196 −$155 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $759 −$24 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $32,757 +$618 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $447 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $986 +$74 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $10,760 +$31 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $9,769 +$265 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $12,694 +$46 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,312 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $38,920 +$38 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7,617 +$29 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $23,376 +$22 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $39,344 +$39 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $2,409 +$214 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $8,804 +$105 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $64,611 +$148 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10,346 +$84 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $59,902 +$59 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $303 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $98,665 +$2,330 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 31 $725 −$725 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $2,255 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $139 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $16,038 +$60 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $23,263 +$519 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $14,549 +$100 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $36,386 +$51 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $28,661 +$367 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $10,447 +$82 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $4,328 +$126 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $7,275 +$120 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $32,048 +$74 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $663 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% +$8,886
crypto 25% +$12,320
world 10% +$3,193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $508 26m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $996 26m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,978 30m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 35m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 35m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 35m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 35m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 35m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 35m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 36m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 37m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 37m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 37m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 37m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 37m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 37m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 37m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 37m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 38m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.8% -12.1% 91% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 113 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 2% -9.0%
≤90d 220 +3.3% -6.5% 95% 5% -8.6%
all 220 +3.3% -6.5% 95% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 5% -8.6%
10% -15.5% 3% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -23.6% 2% -25.3%
20% -31.1% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86,775.53 · official $86,774.35 (match) · 3500 history records