Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaac2…df3a sports 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,244 (-18%) realized −$1,257 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%40W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$341
14 days−$351
30 days−$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$1,266
other 23% −$37
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -25.2% -32.3% 37% 37% -30.1%
≤30d 25 -31.9% -38.4% 36% 36% -30.2%
≤90d 25 -31.9% -38.4% 36% 36% -30.2%
all 108 -24.7% -31.9% 37% 37% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 37% -28.0%
10% -38.4% 37% -34.9%
15% -44.3% 35% -41.2%
20% -49.8% 28% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$48 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$1,257
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses40 / 68
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 115
History coverage219d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $118 $132 +$14 (+11%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $137 +$62 +46%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $113 −$111 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $34 +$16 +48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $85 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $107 +$92 +86%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $102 −$50 -49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $67 −$66 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $47 −$46 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $131 +$65 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $68 +$32 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $392 −$181 -46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $107 −$106 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $87 +$51 +59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $61 +$69 +113%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $19 −$11 -57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$9 -17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $44 −$43 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $9 +$3 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $12 +$5 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Mar 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Mar 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 15 $85 +$110 +130%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5) Mar 15 $50 +$31 +61%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Mar 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 15 $54 +$29 +54%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 15 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 15 $2 +$2 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Team Liquid win PGL Wallachia Season 7? Mar 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - Zhi-Tech Elite Jan 23 $52 +$50 +96%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aurora Türkiye vs Team Liquid PH (BO5) - Wor Jan 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-01-22? Jan 23 $30 +$22 +72%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-01-22? Jan 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-22? Jan 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) Jan 22 $40 +$52 +130%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - Jan 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Yangon Galacticos (BO5) - Wor Jan 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Nov 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Col BUY 8¢ $20 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Wil BUY 17¢ $12 4h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arg BUY 26¢ $10 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 45¢ $41 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belg BUY 27¢ $1 26h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $89 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 10¢ $17 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 11¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 10¢ $3 26h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 46¢ $23 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 67¢ $34 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $85 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $200 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $107 28h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $52 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $43 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $47 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $22 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $2 29h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $38 37h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $64 37h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 37h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $57 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $131 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $62 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 60¢ $121 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.93 · official $298.92 · 333 history records