Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:41:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AA 0xaac1…1a25 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized +$18 · open +$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate71%10W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$128per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Fees−$22est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$153

7 days−$65

14 days−$120

30 days+$30

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+12.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+11.1%	+0.5%	80%	80%	-17.6%
≤30d	14	+24.7%	+12.8%	71%	57%	-8.1%
≤90d	14	+24.7%	+12.8%	71%	57%	-8.1%
all	14	+24.7%	+12.8%	71%	57%	-8.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+12.8%	57%	-8.1%
10%	+2.0%	57%	-16.9%
15%	-7.8%	36%	-24.9%
20%	-16.9%	21%	-32.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 41% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +34% → late +15% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$54 vs −$128 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.06 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage

Net worth$297

Realized+$18

Unrealized+$22

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses10 / 4

Est. fees paid−$22

Open positions3

Markets (closed)14 / 17

History coverage24d

Avg bet$128

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	51¢	48¢	$150	$140	−$10 (-7%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	76¢	100¢	$100	$132	+$32 (+32%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$25	$26	+$1 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 27	$50	+$14	+28%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$188	+$122	+65%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 26	$55	+$17	+31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$273	−$270	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$161	+$52	+32%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$120	+$3	+2%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Jun 14	$151	+$73	+48%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5	Jun 14	$40	+$1	+3%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$223	−$132	-59%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$51	+$77	+152%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$270	−$96	-36%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome?	Jun 09	$51	−$16	-32%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 08	$217	+$100	+46%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$51	+$84	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	93¢	$64	1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$26	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	72¢	$50	1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$87	16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	76¢	$55	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	54¢	$172	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$161	2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5	BUY Under	97¢	$40	13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	98¢	$120	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Spurs	5¢	$9	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Spurs	44¢	$82	13d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	91¢	$50	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	52¢	$30	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	55¢	$101	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	61¢	$5	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	65¢	$86	13d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	39¢	$51	16d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	2¢	$3	18d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	2¢	$3	18d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	16¢	$15	18d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	18¢	$15	18d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	30¢	$5	18d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	30¢	$5	18d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	32¢	$10	18d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	33¢	$5	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.40 · official $297.40 (match) · 67 history records