Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaab9…a08d politics 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$103,317 (+36%) realized +$110,164 · open −$6,847
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate57%88W / 66L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$1,605per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$31,553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$28,041
other 38% +$1,599
world 11% −$1,624
culture 9% +$19,878
economics 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +73.5% +57.0% 56% 44% +15.1%
≤30d 42 +22.6% +10.9% 60% 31% +10.1%
≤90d 129 -1.3% -10.7% 49% 31% +2.4%
all 154 +40.3% +27.0% 57% 34% +10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.0% 34% +10.1%
10% +14.8% 30% -0.4%
15% ← realistic here +3.7% 27% -10.1%
20% -6.4% 23% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$1,555) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +69% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,105 vs −$645 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$31,553
Realized+$110,164
Unrealized−$6,847
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses88 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions40
Markets (closed)154 / 179
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$1,605
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 63¢ 44¢ $9,141 $6,328 −$2,813 (-31%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 33¢ 38¢ $4,351 $5,142 +$791 (+18%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? No 62¢ 92¢ $2,173 $3,250 +$1,077 (+50%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $4,019 $3,078 −$941 (-23%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2,016 $1,376 −$640 (-32%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 88¢ 63¢ $1,824 $1,300 −$524 (-29%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $540 $1,035 +$495 (+92%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $955 $1,018 +$63 (+7%)
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $1,063 $999 −$64 (-6%)
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? Yes 46¢ 54¢ $779 $908 +$129 (+16%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $852 $851 −$2 (-0%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $861 $828 −$34 (-4%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? No 50¢ 86¢ $477 $821 +$344 (+72%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 30¢ 54¢ $340 $621 +$281 (+83%)
Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by June 30? No 96¢ 94¢ $470 $460 −$9 (-2%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? No 75¢ 80¢ $417 $445 +$29 (+7%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 34¢ 36¢ $378 $405 +$28 (+7%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 63¢ 74¢ $333 $387 +$54 (+16%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 27¢ 25¢ $413 $379 −$35 (-8%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 31¢ 3¢ $4,356 $374 −$3,983 (-91%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $867 $297 −$570 (-66%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $224 $280 +$56 (+25%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 32¢ 57¢ $90 $162 +$72 (+80%)
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 55¢ 68¢ $119 $145 +$26 (+22%)
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No 76¢ 90¢ $102 $121 +$19 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 24 $2,853 +$5 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $289 +$1,933 +669%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1,402 +$1,264 +90%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $10,621 +$4,022 +38%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $250 −$245 -98%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $2,400 +$6,320 +263%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $4,160 −$4,133 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,555 −$1,555 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $944 −$944 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,760 +$240 +14%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 15 $510 −$80 -16%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 14 $2,058 +$164 +8%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $451 −$451 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $5,937 −$4,950 -83%
Will Michael Stansfield advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $140 +$1 +1%
Will Richard Pan advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $152 +$6 +4%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30? Jun 10 $1,557 +$16 +1%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $753 −$753 -100%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $2,630 −$2,576 -98%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15? Jun 10 $934 +$977 +105%
Will Thien Ho advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $184 +$1 +1%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 30? Jun 10 $263 +$26 +10%
Will Kevin Kiley advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Tyler Vandenberg advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 13? Jun 09 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $6 +$33 +567%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $4,043 +$31 +1%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5? Jun 06 $101 +$43 +42%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $215 −$180 -84%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $1,395 +$1,693 +121%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 04 $2,316 +$525 +23%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $978 +$301 +31%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? Jun 01 $413 +$5 +1%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $907 −$802 -88%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? Jun 01 $356 $0 +0%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 27 $752 −$58 -8%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se May 27 $118 −$118 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $4,184 +$5,301 +127%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $7,643 +$8,573 +112%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? May 26 $1,000 $0 -0%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? May 26 $269 −$6 -2%
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30? May 22 $1,192 +$1,306 +110%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $2,197 +$4,958 +226%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? May 19 $236 +$413 +175%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 19 $279 −$228 -82%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $7,278 +$201 +3%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,081 +$30 +3%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $694 +$416 +60%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2,302 +$364 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kash Patel out by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $191 1h
Kash Patel out by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $200 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 100¢ $2,707 4h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 98¢ $147 5h
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? SELL No 30¢ $61 33h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 41h
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? SELL No 30¢ $2 43h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 43h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 45h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 46h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $77 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $173 2d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Kash Patel out by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $44 2d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY No 24¢ $41 2d
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $167 2d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $230 3d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY No 24¢ $3 3d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY No 24¢ $7 3d
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 3d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY No 24¢ $11 4d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY No 24¢ $1 4d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY No 24¢ $2 4d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY No 24¢ $67 4d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $873 4d
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,552.98 · official $31,553.07 (match) · 3500 history records