Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaab4…8d87 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 378d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 33% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 4% −$1
economics 4% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 +1.3% -8.4% 20% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +1.3% -8.4% 20% 10% -9.5%
all 29 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

378d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage378d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $14 $0 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Salzburg win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jun 12 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $44 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $11 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $9 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $44 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records