Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaab4…5a40 sports 511 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,785 (+10%) realized +$4,969 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%229W / 274L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$485est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$351
7 days−$3,750
14 days−$892
30 days+$2,364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$6,570
other 13% +$92
weather 13% −$270
world 5% −$1,672
culture 1% −$339
politics 1% −$290
crypto 1% −$196
economics 0% +$53
tech 0% −$26
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -58.5% -62.5% 18% 17% -28.3%
≤30d 394 -12.4% -20.8% 44% 43% -2.8%
≤90d 500 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 44% -1.5%
all 503 -9.1% -17.8% 46% 44% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 44% -1.6%
10% -25.6% 41% -11.1%
15% -32.8% 38% -19.6%
20% -39.4% 34% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$67 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized+$4,969
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses229 / 274
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$485
Open positions8
Markets (closed)503 / 511
History coverage97d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 81¢ $210 $293 +$83 (+40%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $387 $79 −$308 (-80%)
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Yes 16¢ 100¢ $10 $64 +$54 (+540%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 55¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 45¢ 45¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$44 +108%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $51 +$43 +84%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$18 +180%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 +$87 +86%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$136 +223%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $21 +$112 +546%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $563 +$2,118 +376%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $51 −$35 -68%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burt Jones finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia Go Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $104 −$4 -4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 3? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 29m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 55¢ $10 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 53¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $20 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 13h
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $30 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $10 13h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $10 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $41 13h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 13h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $10 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 53¢ $20 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $10 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $10 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $10 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.91 · official $544.95 (match) · 1781 history records