Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AA 0xaab1…9678 sports 522 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,759 (-2%) realized −$2,759 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate77%403W / 118L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$1,060est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$863
7 days−$7
14 days−$2,875
30 days−$5,960
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$3,302
other 8% −$1,700
world 7% +$1,879
crypto 3% +$597
finance 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +4.2% -5.7% 82% 56% -9.6%
≤30d 176 +1.1% -8.5% 68% 51% -17.6%
≤90d 353 +1.3% -8.4% 74% 47% -12.8%
all 521 +4.7% -5.3% 77% 47% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 47% -12.3%
10% -14.3% 27% -20.7%
15% -22.6% 17% -28.4%
20% -30.2% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$164 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2,759
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses403 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$1,060
Open positions1
Markets (closed)521 / 522
History coverage158d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 521 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 78¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $251 +$301 +120%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $401 +$25 +6%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $301 +$37 +12%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $76 +$32 +43%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 22 $81 +$20 +24%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $334 +$32 +10%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Take First Corner Jun 22 $77 +$25 +33%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 +$22 +11%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $150 +$50 +33%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $90 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $151 +$52 +34%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $10 +$3 +35%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $81 +$20 +24%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $106 +$14 +14%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $321 +$31 +10%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $78 +$23 +30%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $195 +$26 +13%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $242 +$29 +12%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $202 +$38 +19%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $69 +$32 +47%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $61 +$40 +66%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $30 +$5 +17%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $91 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $108 −$2 -2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 +$44 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $131 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $746 −$746 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $608 −$213 -35%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $251 +$13 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 19 $244 +$7 +3%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $223 +$21 +10%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $178 +$44 +25%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $166 +$12 +7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $153 +$13 +8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $135 +$19 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $123 +$12 +10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $111 +$12 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $107 +$4 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $401 +$52 +13%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $550 +$150 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $146 −$146 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $132 +$17 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $120 +$13 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 19m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $401 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $338 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $48 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $1 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $108 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $4 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $6 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $124 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $30 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $15 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $76 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 89¢ $301 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 91¢ $334 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 80¢ $81 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Take First Corner BUY Uruguay 75¢ $77 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $200 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 89¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 89¢ $8 9h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY No 89¢ $81 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $150 9h
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY No 88¢ $62 11h
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY No 88¢ $44 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 80¢ $81 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 74¢ $6 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 74¢ $4 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $62 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 88¢ $89 12h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY No 91¢ $321 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.36 · official $5.36 (match) · 2226 history records