Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:37:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaab1…ca7a other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$745 (-41%) realized −$648 · open −$97
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$94
14 days−$163
30 days−$653
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$252
sports 47% −$519
weather 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -34.6% -40.8% 23% 23% -34.9%
≤30d 16 -38.6% -44.4% 25% 25% -68.9%
≤90d 16 -38.6% -44.4% 25% 25% -68.9%
all 16 -38.6% -44.4% 25% 25% -68.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.4% 25% -68.9%
10% -49.7% 25% -71.9%
15% -54.6% 19% -74.6%
20% -59.0% 19% -77.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$68 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$701
Realized−$648
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)16 / 23
History coverage19d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 40¢ $321 $295 −$26 (-8%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $153 $130 −$22 (-15%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $160 $118 −$42 (-27%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 35¢ 34¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 +$50 +101%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$59 +146%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$23 +222%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $94 −$93 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $76 +$24 +32%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $497 −$491 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $30 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $29 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $48 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 5h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 38h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 38h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $41 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 3d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 35¢ $71 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $43 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 55¢ $34 4d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 62¢ $94 9d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 10d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $129 10d
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 10d
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $18 10d
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $145 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 75¢ $76 11d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $327 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $299 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $198 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $700.59 · official $700.60 (match) · 32 history records