Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaaf…0ba7 world 33 markets active 7d ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$193 (-5%) realized −$193 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$496
14 days−$539
30 days−$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% −$204
other 1% +$3
politics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 -31.9% -38.4% 55% 27% -26.3%
≤90d 33 -6.9% -15.8% 67% 24% -14.1%
all 33 -6.9% -15.8% 67% 24% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 24% -14.1%
10% -23.8% 9% -22.3%
15% -31.2% 3% -29.8%
20% -37.9% 3% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$56 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage79d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $528 −$496 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $184 +$6 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $322 +$22 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $848 +$108 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $4 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $18 +$2 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $33 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $139 +$17 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $18 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $56 +$2 +3%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? May 17 $12 +$8 +66%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 17 $6 −$2 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 14 $350 +$35 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 11 $29 −$5 -18%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 28 $52 −$3 -6%
AWS service disrupted by April 30? Apr 28 $37 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $180 +$27 +15%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 27 $67 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 27 $39 $0 +0%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 26 $32 −$3 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $149 +$10 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $395 +$99 +25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $67 +$12 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $129 +$10 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 12 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 10 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 04 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 01 $9 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $8 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $29 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $3 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $3 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $0 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $4 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $4 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $3 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $3 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $4 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $4 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No $3 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $1 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $2 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $3 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $3 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $7 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $7 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $7 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $8 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 584 history records