Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AA 0xaaa7…746a crypto 441 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (172 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$3,417 (+446%) realized +$272 · open +$3,145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%229W / 485L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day171.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4,285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$111
14 days+$114
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$13
crypto 20% +$3,342
tech 4% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (172 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 536 +60.4% +45.1% 26% 25% +43.1%
≤30d 714 +73.7% +57.2% 32% 30% +21.6%
≤90d 714 +73.7% +57.2% 32% 30% +21.6%
all 714 +73.7% +57.2% 32% 30% +21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover171.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.2% 30% +21.6%
10% ← realistic here +42.1% 29% +10.0%
15% +28.4% 28% -0.6%
20% +15.8% 28% -10.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +123% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$4,285
Realized+$272
Unrealized+$3,145
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses229 / 485
Open positions53
Markets (closed)714 / 441
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day171.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 714 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $2 $991 +$989 (+49400%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $1 $728 +$727 (+49400%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Up 0¢ 48¢ $1 $544 +$543 (+48400%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $1 $495 +$494 (+49400%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $1 $408 +$407 (+49400%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 95¢ 94¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 97¢ 98¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 92¢ 90¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 99¢ 98¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027? No 98¢ 94¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 94¢ 87¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ugo Humbert be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 447 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 5PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 22 $0 +$1 +469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 6PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 22 $0 +$1 +56847%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 2PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 9AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 9AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 2PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6PM ET Jun 22 $0 +$2 +1011%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 6PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$2 +1221%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Jun 22 $0 $0 +30900%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 1PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +1126%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 22 $0 $0 +8702%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 4PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$1 +489%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +3260%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -22%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -78%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 10AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 11PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +26440%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,285.44 · official $4,285.43 (match) · 3500 history records