Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AA 0xaaa6…b0e5 crypto 1673 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$85 (+3%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate72%1200W / 472L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day71.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$41
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$37
other 13% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 +1.3% -8.3% 72% 71% -8.3%
≤30d 1672 +1.2% -8.5% 72% 48% -11.2%
≤90d 1672 +1.2% -8.5% 72% 48% -11.2%
all 1672 +1.2% -8.5% 72% 48% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 48% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 36% -19.7%
15% -25.2% 28% -27.5%
20% -32.5% 21% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1200 / 472
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1672 / 1673
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day71.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1672 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 12h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 25h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records