Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaa1…a7e8 politics 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate12%20W / 141L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$18
economics 25% −$9
other 15% −$12
sports 10% −$3
culture 7% −$3
tech 3% −$4
world 2% −$6
crypto 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 161 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$345
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses20 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage331d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $345 $345 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $340 −$1 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $44 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $328 $0 -0%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $323 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $322 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Mar 17 $17 $0 +2%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $117 $0 -0%
Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 24 $118 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 09 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 09 $118 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $118 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Jan 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jan 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 03 $39 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $40 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $40 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Dec 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025? Dec 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025? Dec 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025? Dec 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Dec 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? Dec 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 08 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $345 1h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $340 1h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $340 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $340 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $340 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 40d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 40d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $327 62d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $328 62d
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on April 17? SELL Down 48¢ $24 67d
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on April 17? BUY Down 50¢ $25 67d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $323 75d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $323 75d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $321 84d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $322 98d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar SELL No 11¢ $17 98d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar BUY No 11¢ $17 98d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $117 98d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $117 104d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $117 104d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $117 110d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $117 110d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $117 117d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 117d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 118d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $117 118d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $117 119d
Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? SELL No 100¢ $117 134d
Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 100¢ $117 134d
Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? SELL No 100¢ $117 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.83 · official $344.83 (match) · 444 history records