Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaaa0…17e8 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$318 (-55%) realized −$342 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%6W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$91
14 days−$326
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$248
crypto 15% −$46
sports 8% +$7
world 3% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-71.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -54.3% -58.7% 16% 16% -46.6%
≤30d 56 -68.9% -71.9% 11% 11% -72.6%
≤90d 56 -68.9% -71.9% 11% 11% -72.6%
all 56 -68.9% -71.9% 11% 11% -72.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.9% 11% -72.6%
10% -74.6% 11% -75.2%
15% -77.0% 11% -77.6%
20% -79.3% 7% -79.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -92% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$342
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses6 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)56 / 60
History coverage11d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $30 $51 +$21 (+69%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 +$2 +40%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $7 +$37 +504%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 23 $8 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $14 +$15 +107%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$10 +203%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -70%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 +$4 +60%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $4 10h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 11h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 35h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 35h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 35h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 35h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $7 35h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $4 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $14 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.95 · official $128.95 (match) · 119 history records