Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AA
0xaa9d…4744
other · 10 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$82 -48%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$87 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 10
History coverage291d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 8 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 51¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will William Saliba score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+57%)
Will Fenerbahçe win on 2025-08-27? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 +$13 +132%
Will Fenerbahçe win on 2025-08-27? Aug 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 91% −$97
sports 6% +$13
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +131.6% +109.5% 100% 100% +109.5%
≤90d 1 +131.6% +109.5% 100% 100% +109.5%
all 2 +15.8% +4.8% 50% 50% -80.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 50% -80.6%
10% -5.3% 50% -82.4%
15% -14.4% 50% -84.1%
20% -22.8% 50% -85.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.28 · official $59.28 (match) · 17 history records